“The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning” is a highly influential book by management scholar Henry Mintzberg, published in 1994.
The core thesis of the book is a critique of formalized strategic planning as traditionally practiced, arguing that strategy cannot be effectively “planned” in a formal, analytical sense.
Mintzberg asserts that strategic planning is not strategic thinking.
Key Distinctions
| Feature | Strategic Planning (Mintzberg’s Critique) | Strategic Thinking (Mintzberg’s Ideal) |
| Nature of the Process | Analysis: Breaking down a goal or vision into steps, formalizing procedures, and estimating consequences. | Synthesis: Integrating diverse insights and information into a cohesive, non-precise, and flexible “vision” or perspective. |
| Strategy Source | Deliberate Plan: Assumes a strategy can be formulated beforehand. | Emergent Pattern: Strategies often emerge from a continuous process of learning, experimentation, and adaptation. |
| Key Ingredient | Hard Data/Quantification: Over-reliance on measurable, analytical data and forecasting. | Soft Data/Intuition/Creativity: Relies on intuition, personal experience, qualitative insights, and creative discovery. |
| Outcome | A Plan—a rigid, articulated document. | A Perspective—an integrated, often informal, vision or concept of the business. |
The Three Fallacies of Strategic Planning
Mintzberg identifies three fundamental fallacies that undermine the traditional approach to strategic planning:
- The Fallacy of Predetermination (Prediction is impossible): Strategic planning assumes that the future can be accurately predicted, especially discontinuities or major changes. Mintzberg argues that, in a dynamic environment, forecasting is an illusion of control, and rigid, long-range plans are easily rendered obsolete.
- The Fallacy of Detachment (Strategy needs immersion): This is the belief that strategy formulation can be separated from day-to-day operations and performed by detached “planners” or senior managers in an ivory tower. Mintzberg argues that effective strategy requires line managers to be deeply immersed in operational details to gain the “soft data” and crucial insights necessary for synthesis.
- The Fallacy of Formalization (Creativity cannot be programmed): This is the idea that the strategy-making process can be formalized into a systematic, programmed set of steps. Mintzberg argues that strategy making is a creative, intuitive, and messy process—it cannot be forced into a rigid, bureaucratic system.
The New Role for Planning and Planners
Mintzberg does not dismiss planning entirely, but he redefines its role. He suggests that planning should support the strategy-making process rather than attempt to generate the strategy itself. He calls this Strategic Programming.
The new, supportive roles for planners include:
- Strategy Finders: Unearthing “fledgling strategies” that are emerging in various pockets of the organization.
- Analysts: Providing structured analysis and data that informs managers’ strategic thinking.
- Catalysts: Aiding and encouraging managers to think strategically, challenging assumptions, and posing difficult questions.
- Programmers: Formulating the detailed programs and action plans to elaborate and operationalize strategies that have already been created (strategic programming).