How Can Businesses Plan For War?

Planning for war requires a shift from standard “Risk Management” to a “Geopolitical Muscle” framework.

While traditional planning focuses on efficiency and “Just-in-Time” delivery, war-time planning prioritizes strategic autonomy and resilience.

Establishing the Mandate

Effective planning begins with a clear mandate from the CEO and Board. Leading firms are moving away from reactive “wait and watch” stances toward proactive geopolitical functions.

• Operating Archetypes: Companies often embed this function within Government Affairs or Corporate Strategy. The goal is to connect geopolitical intelligence directly to financial forecasting and commercial decision-making.
• The “Radar and Sonar” System: Organizations must create internal channels to harvest field intelligence from local teams, regulators, and clients, rather than relying solely on external news.

Supply Chain: From “Just-in-Time” to “Just-in-Case”

In a conflict scenario, the primary goal is to ensure the flow of essential inputs despite disruptions to air, rail, and maritime routes.

• Diversification and Reshoring: Move away from single-source dependencies. Many businesses are now implementing “nearshoring”—relocating production to neighboring, more stable countries—to reduce exposure to global shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
• Inventory Buffers: Maintain higher safety stocks of critical components and raw materials. Real-world examples from the 2025-2026 period show firms stockpiling semiconductors and energy supplies to bridge 2-to-4 week gaps in logistics.
• Alternative Logistics: Identify and contract with local private transport firms in advance. Establish “dry runs” to test evacuation routes and backup transport plans.

Human Capital and Safety

The most critical asset in any conflict zone is the workforce.

• Phased Evacuation Plans: Develop a multi-stage pullout strategy (e.g., Stage 1: Dependents; Stage 2: Non-essential staff; Stage 3: Key personnel).
• Communications Pyramids: Establish a “phone tree” where one person is responsible for contacting 6-7 others. This ensures information flows even if centralized digital systems fail.
• Designated Collection Points: Identify physical meeting spots or safe houses stocked with food, fuel, and medical supplies for employees.

Financial and Digital Fortification

War often triggers immediate market volatility and cyber threats.

• Cybersecurity Hygiene: State-sponsored cyberattacks frequently target energy, payments, and telecommunications infrastructure. Prioritize “out-of-band” verification for sensitive requests and ensure critical data is stored in air-gapped (offline) environments.
• Cloud Resiliency: Transition to “Multi-Availability Zone” or “Multi-Region” architectures. In regions of high conflict, businesses are increasingly demanding locally owned, sovereign cloud platforms to ensure data remains accessible if international cables are severed.
• Liquidity and Cash: Ensure employees and local offices have access to adequate cash and “open” airline tickets, as local currency devaluation and payment system outages are common during kinetic warfare.

Real-World Business Examples

Develop a specific 5,000-word Manager’s Guide for a particular region or sector regarding these contingency strategies.